FXO vs. LG-IM - Opening Day Preview

If you were to look at performances in individual leagues only, this match would be hilariously easy to call. Beyond Leenock, FXO doesn't have a lot of trophies – certainly nothing to match a team like IM. But they do have two GSTL championships, obtained back-to-back (FXO also happens to be the only team with back-to-back championships) through strong performances during the regular season and with the GSTL final-version of Gumiho to close things out. Among the eSF teams, FXO has the definition of a strong core – a team not dependent on one single player, but instead relying on a solid handful of players that each can cause serious damage to any team. This is their greatest advantage, and very rarely has it been a disadvantage due to their core players always being able to step up when it has been needed, becoming super-aces for the duration of a single match.

Whereas IM is the team that should have won a lot more team leagues, FXO is the team that won without a star-studded line-up, and did it twice. In some ways, FXO is IM's polar opposite – the team is smaller, doesn't have as many individual championships, and at first glance the team's line-up would be considered a huge underdog against a team like IM.¨But toward the end of WoL, FXO's roster regularly crushed the opposition in GSTL. FXO's main strength is that unlike many other teams in GSTL, they do not rely on a single superace-level player to carry them match after match. FXO has at least three players capable of filling the ace role, with Leenock representing Protoss, Terran and Zerg respectively. Not only is it near-impossible to prepare single match-up snipers for all three of FXO's key players, but the preparation is even more difficult given Leenock's and Tear's aptitude for wonky strategies. While FXO's supporting cast isn't as strong as the core trio, Lucky, TheBest, and JKS are all solid players capable of holding their own.

TheBest and Lucky have both come through for FXO on many occasions in GSTL – although they don't always perform alongside the best players in the league, they more often than not come out and take down at least one player with them, which is all they need to do to set-up to core trio to clean things up. Honorable mention also goes to the out-of-retirement sC who has come back to Starcraft II. He might not be ready in time to play against IM, but he is almost guaranteed to make at least one appearance this season. Finally, there is JKS - the player who actually performed the best out of all FXO's players in the pre-season, winning games against Maru, Byun and SuperNoVa. We don't know very much about JKS, but beating Maru (who is currently sitting high up on the ladder) and Supernova (who has also looked very good in HotS) bodes well for him against a team that's likely to send out at least one Terran.

The FXO trio of aces was perhaps the most dangerous three-man squad in WoL GSTL. Tear, whose greatest GSL achievement is reaching the Ro48 in Code A, has an uncanny knack for performing far above expectations in GSTL, and has performed countless multi-kills against high-caliber teams. Leenock, likewise, time and again brought clutch ace match performances to the table whenever necessary. And then of course, Gumiho is 8-0 in GSTL finals, winning the championship almost single-handedly for FXO not once, but twice. To illustrate:

Naturally, this is a new game and the majority of FXO remains largely unproven against top tier opposition in HotS. Leenock showed some interesting use of swarm hosts at MLG, but fell unceremoniously to Innovation by a score of 0 - 3 after showing weakness in his previous best match-up ZvT.
But with Gumiho (whose aggression will now be much stronger with the addition of the turbovac) and Tear who will doubtlessly bring a slew of new, innovative strategies, Leenock still having yet to find his footing might actually be alright for FXO. Make no mistake, Leenock stepping it up and showing renewed confidence will be very important for FXO, but with how well Terran and Protoss have performed so far in HotS compared to Zergs-not-named-Life, things are looking grim but not impossible for the two-time champions.

FXO's best shot at winning here is hoping for Lucky to take down Ruin in the opening match and then rely on Gumiho's relentless aggression to take down two or three players if or when Lucky falls. According to various interviews (and the statement he made by playing well), Ruin is one of IM's better players currently and will be no walkover for Lucky. Once again, it'll come down to adaption - how good is Lucky at HotS? He's been a solid player for FXO in team leagues for a long time, but has never really had the multi-kill potential of Gumiho, Tear or Leenock. With Ruin, it's still difficult to say where exactly he is at. Strong performances in the pre-season in combination with praise from his team mates should mark him as the favorite, but we haven't seen him play against Zerg yet. Still, with how shaky most Zergs looked at IEM and MLG, it's not hard to give the edge to Ruin barring clever all-ins devised by Lucky and friends.  Additionally, we will see the debut of the new GSTL map Red City. We've seen players take advantage of new, infrequently played maps by bringing some very map specific strategies to the table, and it will be interesting to see if either player wants to go that route. With a new map and a new expansion, this match could be very unpredictable.

There are two interesting stories to look out for tonight as the two teams battle it out in the new Gangnam studio: first, it's the matter of how well the key players on each team have adapted. We saw a glimpse of LG-IM's power in HotS, but how has the rest of the team fared? Second is the theme that starts off the season: the should-have-been-championship team Incredible Miracle vs. the actual champions FXO. Few people believed FXO to be the championship-caliber team they've shown themselves to be twice, whereas everyone has always considered IM the favorite. Will history repeat itself, or will IM finally take down their polar opposite to start off the season?